Posted on Monday, 14th September 2009 by Patrick Dorwin
Wow, ABC news is reporting a crowd estimate of 2 million for the 9/12 Tea Party March on D.C. Rally… WOW!
Celebrating the 9/12 rallies; Update: Turnout estimated at 2 million
Remember, next Saturday the Wisconsin Chapter of Americans For Prosperity & The Wisconsin GrandSons of Liberty are sponsoring Wisconsin’s largest TEA Party right here on Milwaukee’s lakefront, so even if you couldn’t make it to DC, you can still have your voice heard.
Update from Roland:
From Michelle Malkin, here is a screenshot from a livecam taken on 9/12/2009:
From the same livecam…here is a time lapse sequence showing the crowd showing up:
And finally, here is a Google map depiction of what you see in the traffic cam, which is mounted near 14th Street NW & E Street NW looking back along Pennsylvania Avenue to the US Capitol Building. That route is about 1.2 miles according to Google Maps…how many people would it take to fill that space?
I think a 1-2 million estimate is high…but there were waaaayyy more people there than the 50-70,000 number floated by those desperate to downplay these TEA parties. In fact, folkbum is so desperate to rain on the parade (protest, actually), the best “source” he could come up with was another blogger citing a twitter post. I’m impressed…not so much.
H/T: BadgerBlogger commenter “Jaeson”
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83 Responses to “Can you hear me now? — 9/12 Tea Party March on D.C. draws massive crowds”
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September 12th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
2010 we throw the socialists and the limpwrist Republicans out and then in 2012 we throw the Marxist out.
September 12th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
I just came back from WI, visiting with my Liberal family. I took great Joy !!!! in texting my movements in DC today, Had the time of my life,take a stand,your in or out. tea party on!!!!!
September 12th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
The Urban Hang Suite will be in the house!
After we make history with 10,000 people, there will be jarts and mojitos. In that order.
September 12th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
2 Million?… really?
from the link:
At no time did ABC News, or its affiliates, report a number anywhere near as large. ABCNews.com reported an approximate figure of 60,000 to 70,000 protesters, attributed to the Washington, D.C., fire department. In its reports, ABC News Radio described the crowd as “tens of thousands.”
Brendan Steinhauser, spokesman for FreedomWorks, said he did not know why Kibbe cited ABC News as a source.
As a result of Kibbe’s erroneous attribution, several bloggers and commenters repeated the misinformation.
Need a towel to get that egg off your face?
September 13th, 2009 at 9:20 am
And by 2 million, they meant maybe 75,000.
September 13th, 2009 at 9:30 am
75,000 is a lot of people, I’ll give you that. However, it’s about 1/7 as many who marched in LA in 2006 in support of immigration reform, or about 1/13 as many who march on Washington in 2004 to support abortion rights, and about 1/25 as many people who attended Obama’s inauguration–just to add some perspective.
September 13th, 2009 at 9:39 am
Even if it were 75,000, it would be 75,000 more than the number of tributes to the 9/11 victims on Jay’s hate America site this past Friday.
September 13th, 2009 at 10:03 am
Jay can’t see anything with his head stuck in the sand.
September 13th, 2009 at 10:30 am
Yeah, we’re not having much effect at all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/health/policy/13plan.html
http://sify.com/news/politics/fullstory.php?a=jjntpfjjaja&title=Census_Bureau_severs_ties_with_ACORN_in_2010_count
September 13th, 2009 at 10:34 am
Bonus points for “ineffectual” and “failure” in the same paragraph. Especially since it’s in the NYT, regarding this administration.
September 13th, 2009 at 11:12 am
That 75K number was from about 9 am…. They had to start the actual march early because Freedom Plaza couldn’t hold everyone. The Traffic Cams in DC show a steady stream for 3-1/2 hours and the folks took up a goodly portion of the space between the Capitol Building and the Washington Monument.
Was it 2 Million – highly unlikely. It was most likely in the high 6-figures.
September 13th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Take a peek at Folktunes blog. It’s about as real as Santa Claus. This is exactly why I laugh at fools like Folktunes. Some of you get it, some of you don’t. It’s quite simple.
Government hack failures like Jay Bullox have no intention of being honest. None.
The Million Lib march had less people than the march yesterday, and when the Million Lib march happened, every lib in America had a stiffy for a month.
Liberalism is a disease. Bullox is a clown. A government dependant hack and clown.
September 13th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Folkbum, to put this in a correct perspective, the estimates on the 9-12 march don’t include the numbers from the repeated tea parties that have occurred on a regular basis all over the nation since their inception, as opposed to a one shot march.
Obama’s inauguration was attended by folks of many different ideologies simply because of it’s historical nature and out of curiosity.
However, I would like to see the source for your numbers. I find it interesting that you would balk at ABC’s numbers, yet willingly ready to accept the the other numbers you cite.
September 13th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Up to two million march to US Capitol to protest against Obama’s spending in ‘tea-party’ demonstration
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1213056/Up-million-march-US-Capitol-protest-Obamas-spending-tea-party-demonstration.html
September 13th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Excellent point, Gus. Now Keith is on there using outright racial slurs and whining about the lack of respect on Captiol Hill.
Ironic, considering Folkbum.com posted nothing honoring the 9/11 victims, but had Keith post a disgusting piece of speculative garbage.
I think it’s high time to start taking the fight to these assholes. If Jay posts during school hours, report it to MPS. Start going after Keith’s clients. Hate mongers of all stripes need to be stopped.
September 13th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
We have a lot to learn from the lefties about protests, protest numbers, and using filming angles to make the crowd look bigger or smaller.
Michelle Malkin should have linked where she got the numbers from. I believe she got the number from someone at ABC but it seems she was incorrect about ABC reporting it.
We needed way more wide angle shots. The only wide angle shots I have seen so far have been from the DC traffic cams. Arial shots showing the whole area would have been great.
I drove past a school funding protest in Minneapolis one night about twenty to thirty protestors there. By the time I got home 15 minutes later the local news had made it look like hundreds.
September 13th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Jaeson, I sourced my numbers on my blog.
Paul, I honored 9/11, as I do every year. I don’t do it the same way some here do, but I do it.
September 13th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Grand total of words paying tribute to 9/11 victims on Pundit Nation, Blogging Blue, and Folkbum:
Zero
Instead we have members of the aforementioned sites using racial slurs toward Republicans, as well as a disgusting straw man hate rant against the right.
What goes around comes around.
September 13th, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Paul, I was not a victim of 9/11, any more than you were. I chose to honor it in a way that is meaningful for me, that reflected my experience of that day and how I have come to view it in retrospect. I’m not about to be false to myself; maybe that’s not such a big deal to you, but it matters to me.
It must be very sad to be you.
September 13th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
Oh, and Paul, where is the link to your blog where you honored the victims of 9/11?
September 14th, 2009 at 10:20 am
Paul, we’ve known for some time that Folkbum lives in an alternate universe where little makes sense. He’s little more than a reactionary contrarian, but still fun to play with at times.
September 14th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Um, sorry guys, but 60-70,000 is indeed the real number.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/size-matters-so-do-lies.html
September 14th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Next thing you will say as it was several dozen
There will be an official crowd estimate released later this week, right now the numbers are all over the place, but it was undeniably a huge crowd when compared to other gatherings in this area. The crowd size caught police and other DC officials off guard.
September 14th, 2009 at 11:58 am
If you look towards the bottom of Michelle Malkin’s blog entry, you’ll see a map published by USA today where esttimates were given on Obama’s inuaguration attendance, based on the layout of the city.
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/09/12/yes-the-picture-is-real-nutroots/
September 14th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
In #19 folkbum says he was not a victim of 9-11. That’s the problem with the way these lefties think. It didn’t happen to them personally, therefore it didn’t victimize them. Kind of like if I see someone burglarizing my neighbor’s house I shouldn’t really care because it’s not my house (only that example pales by comparison to what happened on 9-11). Fact of the matter is every American was victimized on 9-11. Those killed, their families and other loved ones, and those who were directly involved in the response to this attack on our country were the direct and victims most affected that day to be sure, but what happened that day victimized everybody in this country as surely as the cowardly attack on Pearl Harbor December 7, 1941 and every other cowardly attack against this country here and abroad. Attack my country and you’ve attacked me personally!
September 14th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Thanks, Glenn. That little shit irked me with comment 19. I lost a friend on AA Flight 11 on 9/11, so that (redacted) is real yellow for his remark.
What goes around comes around. This morning, I filed a formal complaint with MPS about Jay using my tax dollars updating his hate site.
September 14th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
At least Jay will get your name and be able to file a complaint with your boss for doing it on company time (1:51PM).
September 14th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Yawn.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
In fact, folkbum is so desperate to rain on the parade (protest, actually), the best “source” he could come up with was another blogger citing a twitter post.
Or, I could link to the dozens of news reports all saying crowds in the “tens of thousands” or “many tens of thousands.” I linked to that other blogger to make a different point.
This morning, I filed a formal complaint with MPS about Jay using my tax dollars updating his hate site.
And how do I do that, Paul? By posting from my living room at 5 AM?
September 14th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Oh, and Patrick, your link about the National Park Service goes to a story about the inauguration, not Saturday’s march.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Crumbum, you and 3rd way are a pair of lying surrender monkeys. What you call honor, others call treason. If you butt****s don’t like it here, try Zimbabwe. They have already implemented all of Obama’s plans.
No, bum, you are not an honest person in any way, shape, or form.
September 14th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Or, I could link to the dozens of news reports all saying crowds in the “tens of thousands” or “many tens of thousands.”
Would those news reports be coming from any news agencies that reported on the Coast Guard fire fight in the Potomac?
http://people-press.org/report/543/
Yeah.
Maybe the map that USA Today published to estimate the attendance at Obama’s inauguration might help:
http://people-press.org/report/543/
I’ll be watching to see if USA Today adjusts the numbers on the map for the Tea Party.
September 14th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Oops, here’s the USA Today map:
http://img9.imageshack.us/i/washingtonc.jpg/
September 14th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
So, Jay, after looking at the pictures, how many people do you honestly think were there?
September 14th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Come on Dan, it is the New Math they have in public schools:
Any number that appears to benefit conservatives, divide by two and lop off a zero. Did the “election” of “Senator” Franken not make for a teachable moment?
September 14th, 2009 at 9:49 pm
If Jay Bullroar thinks there are only 75,000 at the DC rally, then he ought not to be afraid of being hit with a tire iron 1 time for each person over 75,000 that were there. I wonder how many thousand whacks crumbum takes before he expires or recants his lies.
September 14th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Dan, you are honestly asking Bullock for an honest answer? He is not concerned about the truth here…he only cares to spin this in a way favorable to Obama.
Or, I could link to the dozens of news reports all saying crowds in the “tens of thousands” or “many tens of thousands.”
But you didn’t, folkbum…you linked to some dude who linked to a “tweet.” The same dude, by the way, who admits that being a Statist is on par with being a Racist.
I linked to that other blogger to make a different point.
Which was……? To show you’re not the only one engaging in dishonest spin in service to The One?
September 14th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
http://mediamatters.org/columns/200909140039
Seems the 2 million figure was first put out there in a tweet, which was then repeated by Malkin, who should really know better. She has since retracted.
ABC never reported that number: that is a fact. You too should correct passing it along.
By the way, 538 is a fairly well known site respected for its statistical acumen.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:29 am
538 is a fairly well known site respected for its statistical acumen.
So you say…but reading the 538 article, where it does talk about 9/12/09, it focuses on how the inflated number of 2 mil became widely cited across the net and wire services. What Nate Silver didn’t do was provide any analysis of how many people were in DC. He cites an ABC columnist named Russell Goldman. Goldman cites 60-70000 the Washington DC FD. So again, we’re brought back to a tweet.
Patrick and I have provided several items here to help the reader decide for themselves what estimates they believe to be reasonable. Yes, folkbum, we know Patrick’s link refers to Presidential inaugurations. The interactive graphic gives the viewer an idea of how many people it takes to fill areas around the US Capitol. So, we encourage you, Spice and others to unplug from your spin machines and think for yourselves. Try starting out by answering this question: How many people would it take to fill the 1 1/4 miles of Pennsylvania Avenue from the Capitol to the White House?
September 15th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
It’s like the classic party game “guess the number of jellybeans in the jar”. None of us are qualified crowd estimators. The only estimates I have seen from anyone that is a qualified crowd estimator have been sub-100K, yet you guys continue to insist there were eleventy billion people there and are willing to rely on your best guess as the authorative count.
Yes, there were a lot of people that turned out for a highly publicized rally. Bully for your team. More people engaged in the political debate is a good thing, as long as their participation is honest. From the get-go the crowd estimates from your side have been completely dishonest. To gain momentum and become a truly powerful force any political movement has to operate from a position of honesty. Unfortunately we don’t seem to see a whole lot of that from our current crop of pols, and political operatives.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
The only estimates I have seen from anyone that is a qualified crowd estimator have been sub-100K…
Do you have some links on that? The only one reflecting the numbers you prefer that I’ve seen thrown around is the DC Fire tweet…how many “qualified crowd estimators” work for them? Probably none, since they quite plainly stated their estimate was unofficial.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
I’m always reticent to provide links on conservative blogs because so many bloggers and commenters discount sources out of hand. “Journalists? All liberals.” “Scientists? Godless pinkos.” Suffice it to say crowd estimation is a difficult and inexact pseudo-science. But overestimating by thirty-fold certainly does seem to go to motive.
September 15th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
…overestimating by thirty-fold…
Based on what? The basis for your underestimation is circulating the internet in the EXACT same way as the inflated 2 million number. Again, the 60-75000 number goes back to this tweet. The key here is that y’all rather conveniently omit the “UNOFFICIAL” wording.
I’m always reticent to provide links on conservative blogs…
Yes, by all means…don’t support your point.
The link you did provide was long on deconstruction of Michelle Malkin, and very short on any data concerning an accurate count. Most of the revised estimates I’ve seen come out on Fox News today put the crowd at 1.2 mil. Still seems high to me, but I think the number was easily 500k or more. Jim, if you want to see the best example of “discounting sources out of hand,” wait until the liberal echo chamber sees me citing Fox News.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
“Most of the revised estimates I’ve seen come out on Fox News today put the crowd at 1.2 mil.”
Do you have a link?
The estimates I was quoting all came from easily found links that can be reached from following links already in this thread.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
An AH on Jay’s Left Wing Hate Site is now claiming the 9/12 crowd photos are fakes.
Someday, Keith will have that painful heart attack.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Fox must use the same guys who do Circus Parade estimates.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Like I said 3rd Way, I was watching Fox News this morning on television and saw the 1.2mil number, which I said seemed high to me. I’d like to provide you a link to my tv, but what can I tell ya.
What “qualified crowd estimators” were you citing?
You libs really are in a tizzy, desperate to deflate and disrespect these TEA party participants aren’t you?
September 15th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Someday, Keith will have that painful heart attack.
And if he gets his way, he’ll have an end-of-life counselor there to administer a “free” pain pill in lieu of expensive surgery.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
I saw the same interview on Fox News this morning around 6AM. It was Glen Beck claiming some “university” did an estimate that came out to 1.2 million. There was no source and he could not even name the institution. Most credible estimates I have seen are 300,000-500,000, which is still pretty damn good.
Oh and the Fire Department absolutely has crowd estimators working for it. That is one of the things they do. I thought being a police captain you would know that.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Keith’s unbridled hatred for the right on this issue is rooted in that his insurance provider won’t give him his cholesterol meds, or some other bitchfest of the sort.
Here’s the cost/benefit worksheet the guvmint can work out for Keith:
Keith is an overweight, angry PR hack. There are many others who are overweight, angry, or are PR hacks.
One pill for Keith!
September 15th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Sequence of events:
1. ABC wrongly attributed as reporting 1.5 million people.
2. Someone ups it to 2 Million via twitter.
3. Malkin reports it.
4. ABC (correctly) denies reporting any such thing.
5. Malkin now tries to come up with evidence to support the numbers that were just made up.
Hey, it’s the new “Fake, But Accurate”!
September 15th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
“You libs really are in a tizzy, desperate to deflate and disrespect these TEA party participants aren’t you?”
To the casual observer I think the side that quotes an estimate provided by the fire department isn’t going to look as desperate as the side that conflates a published source by 30 times and tries to pass off phony photos. But feel free to do whatever you want to keep yourselves entertained.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
John, my point is that detractors are all hinging their comments on an “UNOFFICIAL” tweet…a tweet has become a credible source today. It’s just as ridiculous as those rushing to say there were 2mil people there. Bottom line is that a dense crowd filled Pennsylvania Ave. from the White House to the US Capitol…a distance of a little more than a mile. Forget the spinmeisters, if Congress and the media want to ignore that, they do so at their own peril.
I thought being a police captain you would know that.
You must be thinking of Glenn, John.
Here’s another photo:
September 15th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Just to be clear, you don’t have a link or source. Is that right, 3rdWay?
“Fake, But Accurate.” That would be true if we were sticking to the inflated numbers here…we’re not.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Consider my source the FD.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
How? They haven’t put out an official estimate.
September 15th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Who cares if it’s official or not. The label placed upon it has no impact on its veracity, and we can make judgments about its veracity just fine without changing the label.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I take that FD estimate with a dose of skepticism because they did bother to type UNOFFICIAL in all caps and because it’s on twitter thereby making it rather anonymous. Not the makings of legitimate source…but as you’re an anonymous commenter, it’s not like you have much riding on it.
September 15th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
Isn’t that the fake photo that has been floating around?
September 15th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
My understanding is that the Washington DC Police and Fire departments no longer release official crowd estimates because it leads to pissing contests like this, so you’re requesting a service that no longer exists.
I assume that ABC vetted the Tweet, at least confirming that the person posting was a member of the organization charged with counting. I suspect the “unofficial” is there so as to not violate policy and get someone fired.
The fact that it was a tweet doesn’t matter. That’s known as an ad hominem. Actually, that’s not quite right. It’s the same logical fallacy, but it would be more accurate to say “attack against the medium”.
Crowd estimates are imprecise by their nature, and you’ll never know the exact figure, but a member of the police/fire department, even if on Twitter, is more credible than a number than evidence discovered to retrofit an incorrect number into a narrative. At least in my opinion.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
“Not the makings of legitimate source…but as you’re an anonymous commenter, it’s not like you have much riding on it.”
Do you have more riding on it “Roland Melnick”?
Chill out…the numbers will be released “officially” soon enough.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:17 pm
This seems to be a pretty good article:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-crowd15-2009sep15,0,7605893,print.story
“The two groups that sponsored the event offered more modest but widely varying numbers. Pete Sepp, a National Taxpayers Union spokesman, said the group estimated the crowd at 75,000 in the morning and from 200,000 and 300,000 as the day went on. FreedomWorks spokesman Adam Brandon put his “conservative” estimate at 600,000 to 800,000 after comparing photographs of Saturday’s protest with previous events.
Although no official crowd estimates were issued, local officials and an expert indicated the number was more likely under 100,000, still a sizable turnout.
Farouk El-Baz, a Boston University research professor and expert on crowd estimation, said his informal research from press coverage indicated 75,000 as the peak number.”
September 15th, 2009 at 4:25 pm
“Do you have more riding on it “Roland Melnick”?
Yep…you have my name and are currently commenting at my (shared) blog. This is what I get for trying to be reasonable with you guys/girls…sheesh.
I assume that ABC vetted the Tweet, at least confirming that the person posting was a member of the organization charged with counting. I suspect the “unofficial” is there so as to not violate policy and get someone fired.
Yep…those are your assumptions.
I certainly was attacking twitter as a medium because I did make the litany of assumptions you did. I am also critical of it when compared to more traditional types of informational sources.
Let’s all hope some official head count comes out…assuming the 9/12 TEA party wasn’t just a figment of our collective imaginations.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Do you like college football gameday on ESPN? Then you must love the Dave Matthews Band as well, because they’re the official band of college gameday.
Sure, maybe you think you hate DMB, they’re uninspired lyrics, sloppy, pseudophish-esque noodling, and intolerable throngs of young hippie poseurs. That’s understandable. But now that we know you like Gameday, you also clearly like the DMB. After all, it’s official!
Good lord.
Once again, you think that the source used by a major news organization is false, but that the count based on a lie about that number is true?
You should not believe something simply because you want it to be true.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
“Their,” of course. Not “they’re.” Bleh.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
That’s funny, Noonan. That’s the same bullshit argument libtrash use to mock Fox News.
September 15th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Let’s first try an estimate how many people would want to keep and spend the money they earned. 360 million?
Let’s then try an estimate who wants have the money they worked for to be taken under penalty of great fine or jail time by the government to be given to other perfectly capable adults. 360 million?
Let’s then explain that if everyone votes to tax their neighbors they themselves will end up being taxed and a portion of their money the worked hard for to earn will be taken under penalty of great fine or jail time. After they understand, estimate how many people will vote to tax their neighbors. 360 million?
Let’s estimate how many people think perfectly capable adults should be held responsible for their actions and what they created? 360 million?
September 15th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
How could you mock Fox News by criticizing reliance on the label of “official?” My experience with Fox News pegs them as overtly counter-mainstream. I can’t see them relying on the word “official” with any regularity. I certainly haven’t seen it.
And what’s libtrash?
I like it when people don’t address the substance of an argument, but instead rely on logical fallacies. Paul, your choice of the Straw Man is a bold one, but why don’t you try arguing with me instead of “libtrash,” whoever that is.
September 15th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
I meant to write:
“I certainly was attacking twitter as a medium because I did NOT make the litany of assumptions you did.”
Once again, you think that the source used by a major news organization is false, but that the count based on a lie about that number is true?
Noonan:
First off…I didn’t make the blanket statement that the source is false…I said I am critical of it…ie, I don’t take it at face value. Secondly…re-read my commentary here. It’s pretty clear that I don’t support the inflated numbers. I’ve said it repeatedly that I don’t buy the 1mil+ numbers. I think at best it’s about 1/2mil.
September 15th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Ah, so instead of an unsupported 2 million, you think it was an unsupported 500,000. I suppose an unsupported estimate that is 7 times larger than the most credible estimate is reasonable when compared to an unsupported estimate 26.6 times larger than the most credible estimate.
This is not a logical fallacy. It’s actually a cognitive bias know as anchoring, where people have trouble moving off of their initial assumptions, and subsequent compromise does not wander far from the anchor.
It’s a fun one.
September 15th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Anchoring? Perhaps you are experiencing a bit of Freudian Projection. You have absolutely no clue what work was done to come up with the DCFD unofficial number (one reported at 9:43am BTW)…yet you stand on it as if it were iron clad. Steadfastly defending a position built upon a series of assumptions and suppositions rather than analyzing the actual facts/data available (as with your reliance on a tweet) makes you seem pretty anchored if you ask me.
I’ve been pretty consistent where I think the numbers are. I will “move off” them when I see credible evidence to the contrary. Call that anchored…I don’t care. My number is a guesstimate…no doubt…but I haven’t claimed it to be anything other than my opinion. The rest of the back & forth here has been a theoretical exercise.
September 15th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I simply think you should go with the best data available.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
Noonan-Smail, Crumbum, and Loserway, you all are lying through your teeth. Lambeau holds roughly 80,000. No way that crowd on the mall fits in Lambeau or several Lambeaus. I notice crumbum didn’t take me up on my challenge. I guess he has no faith in his lies.
September 15th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
Which according to you, is this.
September 15th, 2009 at 10:02 pm
Interesting conversation, gentlemen.
Here’s the best guess I’ve see so far:
http://westernexperience.wordpress.com/2009/09/13/march-on-washington-dc-tea-party-protest-attendance-by-the-numbers/
Even if the guy is off by 50% he’s still at 200k.
If any photos of main areas exist, one might be able to conclude a decent estimate based on this info:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-01-19-crowd_N.htm
Finally, for a look at the difficulties of crowd estimations see these guys:
http://www.bu.edu/remotesensing/research/million-man-march/index.html
September 16th, 2009 at 2:39 am
Why isn’t everyone comparing numbers to this map that USA Today put out?
http://img9.imageshack.us/i/washingtonc.jpg/
Hummmmmmmmmmm?
September 16th, 2009 at 9:52 am
The analysis MjM links to seems to try to estimate the size of a moving crowd in a photograph by comparing it to an average density of people standing still. A crowd of strangers moving together holding signs is going to be a lot less densely packed together than a crowd of people packed together to witness something like the presidential inauguration.
I would guess there would be about 4 times as much space between a stationary crowd and one that is moving and carrying signs. Hence a moving group of 75K looks a lot like a stationary group of 300K when you try to compare the pictures from the 9/12 march to the images of the inauguration.
September 16th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Let the libs squeal like stuck pigs.
The official count was 23. Move along nothing to see. One thing is clear about liberals.
They are dihonest government dependant hacks.
How’s the Hope and Change working out?
September 16th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Rasmussen: ObamaCare more unpopular than ever
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/09/16/rasmussen-obamacare-more-unpopular-than-ever/
September 16th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
I would guess there would be about 4 times as much space between a stationary crowd and one that is moving …
I believe you meant opposite.
And your dishonesty is showing by intentionally lowering the estimate I linked to from 405k to 300k so as to fit your argument. As such, even at your “4 times” the crowd would be 100k+.
However, the even 405k estimate, as explained at the link provided, is a snapshot estimate. That is, an estimate of a filled Pennsylvania Avenue at a single moment in time.
Examining the time lapse video at the top of this post we can get a better idea of the actual march total. I will even give you your 10s.f. per.
The average speed at which a person walks is 3mph. The length of Penn Ave in question is 1.2 miles. So, a person traversing this section of Penn Ave. would take apx. 24 minutes to do so.
I round to 30 mins.
Looking at the time lapse, the “march” itself doesn’t really start until about 9:00 and the back side clears out about 11:00. The first row of marchers would reach the end of Penn Ave at 9:24. At that precise moment in time there are 100,000 people standing on Penn Ave.
But let us not forget the back end; new marchers are stepping on to Penn Ave (i.e. for every row stepping off Penn Ave at the Capitol end a new row steps on at the White House end).
So, we have about 1.5 hours (again, rounding) in which new folks are added to the march. If done per second, there are 5,400 seconds, or “people additions” at the back end (i.e. for every row stepping off Penn Ave at the Capitol end a new row steps on at the White House end.) Penn Ave is 160ft wide. Using your 10s.f. (3.16′ x 3.16′) “guess”, every second about 50 people step off Penn Ave and 50 step on.
So, in addition to the 100k people standing on Penn Ave at 9:24am, 270,000 joined in on the march after 9:24.00am.
Another way to look at it is to say that every 24 minutes, from 9:24 to 11:00, a fresh 100,000 people were standing on Penn Ave
So, using YOUR 10.s.f., the estimate is still in the 400,000 neighborhood.
A bit more than 75k.
September 16th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
OK, here’s a guy who who is a helluva lot smarter than me who did the same thing with a little difference in timing and dimensions. Note that he also estimated the mall.
http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=21884#more-21884
September 16th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Take a look at the picture. Ok, let’s say that is 75,000 people. Imagine that picture X 3.
That is how many jobs were lost last month AFTER passing the PORKULUS bill in February.
I believe Opie’s career is nearing SHOVEL READY status.
Imagine that picture times three. That was Opies best month yet.
September 16th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
A little off topic here.
Jon Stewart has discovered the ACORN scandal
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/09/16/jon-stewart-to-media-on-acorn-where-the-hell-were-you/
JS is actually funny here.
My Govenor, Tim Pawlenty has ordered that State funds to ACORN be halted. Pawlenty’s order finally got the attention of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.